Ep. 236 Why A BAT Will Clobber The Dollar
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U.S. stocks ended the week with marginal gains
In fact, the Dow Jones was up only about 12 points on the week
The real action happened overseas
Foreign markets were strong, particularly emerging markets
They continue to smoke the performance of the U.S. stock market, confounding the experts
The experts thought making America Great Again would be great for U.S. stocks, but it would be a problem for emerging markets
And thus far, emerging markets have been the beneficiaries of the rally to a much greater degree than have domestic stocks
Although the action this week was not really in the stock markets but in the currency markets, in the gold markets
The dollar dropped by over 1% despite the fact that the Fed raised rates
In fact, this was one of the worst weeks for the dollar in about 4-6 months
Gold was up about $25; up 2% on the week
"Hey! I thought gold was supposed to fall, when the Fed hikes rates
Instead, the Fed hiked rates and the price of gold rose
Buy the rumor, sell the fact, gold sold off on the anticipation of this rate hike and it rallied on the realization of what the market had anticipated, so that is not really surprising
But if you go back to the very first rate hike
That really marked the bottom in gold; ever since the Fed started hiking rates
Gold has been rising
The decline in gold took place when people anticipate those rate hikes
By the time they realized the rate hikes, gold began to rise
I think what will really accelerate the prices of gold
Is the fact that rates are not going to nearly as much as the market anticipated
So what has been built into the gold prices for rate hikes is not going to materialize
The rumors were exaggerated
The fact is not going to bear out the rumor

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